Sea level rise

A 2013 World Bank report envisages sea levels rising in South Asia by 60 to 80 cm if temperatures rise by two degrees Celsius by 2100, relative to 1986-2005. In a scenario of four degrees Celsius rise in global average temperatures by 2100, the sea-level rise could touch 100-115 cm by the 2090s.
 
As the planet warms, melting glaciers and polar ice caps increase the volume of seawater. Warmer waters also expand, taking more space. According to the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), the global sea level has already risen by about 10 to 25 cm during the last 100 years.

“It is imperative to protect the coral reefs, sea grass, coastal vegetation and wetlands to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change.”

Ali Rilwan, Bluepeace

 
Sea level rise is a gradual process, not a single event like a tsunami. Land first gets flooded temporarily during high tide or stormy weather. Salt intrusion can render soil and groundwater unusable well before permanent inundation happens.
 
The Maldivians saw early evidence of this in April 1987, when the highest tidal waves in memory flooded a third of the capital Malé, washing away reclaimed land and causing widespread damage. Later that year, the then Maldives President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom raised the issue at the UN General Assembly, and appealed for help to nations like his.
 
In 1989, he convened the first global small island states conference on sea level rise: the beginning of joint advocacy that was later picked up by the Alliance of Small Island States, AOSIS, formed in 1990. [5]
 
At the time, Gayoom told me in an interview, ”A mere rise of one foot in sea level would mean a great deal to us. Storm action and wave action can lead to erosion of the land, salt intrusion and loss of agricultural land, and flooding.”
 
His successor, Mohamed Nasheed, who took over in late 2008, called the plight of his people a human rights issue and a clear threat to national security. In a clever communications move, he once held a cabinet meeting underwater to illustrate what could unfold in a few decades.

Carbon neutral plan

At the policy level, Nasheed announced in 2009 that the Maldives would become carbon neutral in a decade. The ambitious plan involved phasing out fossil fuel use with renewable energies (solar, wind and biomass), improving energy efficiency, and an integrated solid waste management system. [6]
 
“We understand that our becoming carbon-neutral will not save the world, but at least we would have the comfort of knowing that we did the right thing,” Nasheed said later that year.
 
Nasheed told me in an interview in 2009: “Traditionally, we’ve always thought that adaptation represents physical structures — revetments, embankments, breakwaters, etc. But the most important adaptation issue is good governance and, therefore, consolidating democracy is very important for adaptation.” [7]

Political storm

But after Nasheed resigned in February 2012, the Maldives has experienced considerable political unrest. Preoccupied with uncertainties of the present, Maldivians have not had much time to reflect on their long-term survival.
 
Ali Rilwan, executive director of Bluepeace, the country’s oldest environmental organisation, says his group is unclear where plans for carbon neutrality stand today. “Even (the current) President Abdulla Yameen’s government has not mentioned a word about Maldives (going) carbon neutral by 2020.” 
 
Meanwhile, in May 2014, Maldives minister of environment and energy, Thoriq Ibrahim, pledged to ‘minimise the country’s dependence on fossil fuels’ and called for increased investment in clean energy. [8]

Adaptation strategies

An innovative and rigorous adaptation strategy that includes healthier, climate-resilient ecosystems is the best way forward for Maldivians.
 
Bluepeace advocates ecosystem-based adaptation for the short and medium term. That entails conserving terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems as well as restoring those degraded.
 
Of particular concern is the health of coral reefs on which the nation’s key economic activity of tourism depends critically. Coral reefs are also the first line of defence against wave action and storm surges. The warming seas triggered large scale coral bleaching in 1998 and 2010, causing much damage.
 
“It is imperative to protect the coral reefs, sea grass, coastal vegetation and wetlands to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change,” says Rilwan. [9]
 
Ibrahim Naeem, director of the SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) Coastal Zone Management Centre, located in Malé, agrees.  Adopting integrated coastal zone management (ICZM), a scientific methodology to balance competing demands, can help countries to reconcile competing demands and many pressures on the coast.
 
For the longer term, elevating entire islands is an option, albeit a very expensive one. An example is the reclaimed island of Hulhumalé that stands two metres above sea level.
 
Can the Maldivians adapt fast enough to outpace the rising seas? Despite their passionate climate advocacy for over a quarter century, that remains uncertain.

Nalaka Gunawardene is a Colombo-based science writer and journalist who has covered climate stories since the late 1980s. He is also a trustee of SciDev.Net. The views in this column are his own.

Source: SciDev